AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed on the geographic coordinates for a new shipping route and are finalizing a joint statement to manage passage, but Tehran stresses reopening depends on the US meeting its commitments and warns the strait won’t be “safe” for all traffic. Market Impact: Oil whipsawed as de-escalation hopes eased the risk premium, with Brent hovering around $80 after a Houthi missile attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea/ Gulf of Aden reignited supply worries. Security Pressure: Iran warned Gulf states that any new US strike would trigger retaliation against regional energy infrastructure, while US officials claim commercial vessels have been redirected during the blockade. Red Sea Disruption: Yemen’s Houthis again claimed attacks on Saudi tankers, keeping maritime risk elevated even as Hormuz negotiations progress. Power & Gas Sector: Siemens Energy reported a record gas turbine order book (€162bn), citing demand from US data centers and Middle East power projects. Local Energy Politics: US Energy Secretary signaled another Jones Act waiver extension as pump prices stay high; in Iraq, the Hormuz-linked export squeeze is straining public salary payments. Food-Fuel Link: The UN FAO warned Middle East and Ukraine war fallout plus El Niño could drive another food price surge, with Hormuz disruption affecting both fuel and fertilizer inputs. Project Pipeline (Kuwait): L&T Energy won a Kuwait Oil Company EPC contract for Jurassic light crude export facilities and new storage tanks, underscoring continued Gulf oil infrastructure build-out.

Strait of Hormuz diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks with Iran and Oman to boost Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic have made progress but no final deal is signed yet, while US Treasury chief Scott Bessent suggested an agreement could come “today or tomorrow” and help stabilize global energy prices. Shipping terms fight: Iran sources say a temporary plan with Oman is being discussed where Iran keeps control of inbound traffic and can monitor outbound movements, with reports of a possible 60-day arrangement and mine-clearing in a shared lane. Oil and gold markets: Brent slid to about $79 and WTI to about $76 as optimism on Hormuz reopening eased supply fears; gold climbed to a one-month peak on softer oil and a weaker dollar ahead of US jobs data. Red Sea escalation: Yemen’s Houthis claimed they hit a Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu with ballistic missiles, as the blockade campaign against Saudi shipping continues. Power sector in Iraq: Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum began gas deliveries from Khor Mor to Kirkuk’s Taza power station, supporting electricity generation. UAE economy: UAE non-oil private sector activity and hiring improved in July, pointing to resilience despite the Iran-war fallout. Saudi petrochem digital push: Intech won a digital twin energy-and-emissions contract for a Saudi petrochemical producer to enable continuous monitoring and compliance.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent says a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land “today or tomorrow,” aiming for “freedom of movement” for shipping and lower energy costs, while Iran’s foreign ministry denies direct talks and a projectile strike hits a cargo ship in the strait. Shipping Control Fight: Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing a temporary plan where ships enter via an Iranian-controlled lane and exit via Oman, with service fees and possible US blockade-linked conditions—yet Reuters says Iran wants control over inbound traffic and visibility over outbound. Market Pulse: Oil swings on the headlines, with Brent slipping toward the $80s as investors price in de-escalation hopes; US stocks rally toward records on easing crude and strong earnings. Energy Profits vs Politics: Trump renews pressure on Exxon and Chevron over “too much money” as big oil posts record profits tied to the Iran war. Iraq Energy Moves: Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum begin gas supplies to Iraq’s power sector, while Syria plans to restore the Haditha-Baniyas pipeline within three years to reroute around Hormuz risk. Environment Watch: An oil spill off Oman from the grounded Caroline Bezengi expands sharply on satellite images, threatening protected marine areas. Carbon Accounting: A satellite-based study finds Middle East oil and gas sites likely emit more CO2 than official records show, with industrial sources undercounted.

US-Iran Diplomacy vs. Supply Risk: Oil bounced after Trump paused planned strikes and talked of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran denied direct talks and said discussions are only with Oman—keeping traders nervous about shipping security. Strait of Hormuz Updates: A cargo ship off Oman reported being hit by a projectile as Washington and Tehran gave conflicting accounts on talks; Iran and Oman also move toward a temporary Hormuz route management corridor. Market Moves: Brent and WTI recovered modestly after a sharp selloff, while gold edged higher in Dubai and globally as investors weighed mixed signals on talks and upcoming US jobs data for Fed expectations. Big Oil Profit Backlash: BP’s profits more than doubled on Iran-war-driven price spikes, and Trump again attacked Exxon and Chevron for “too much money,” demanding lower retail gas prices. Saudi Energy & Power: Saudi Aramco reported a 44% jump in Q2 profit as war lifted prices, while Saudi Arabia hosted an International Nuclear Science Olympiad to build nuclear talent. Renewables & Grid Resilience: Egypt’s EETC signed a PPA for a 407-MW wind project, Jordan awarded a UAE-funded 25-MW wind contract, and a new research framework targets where to place energy storage to handle worst outage scenarios. Regional Clean Energy Push: Hoymiles expanded its solar-plus-storage partnership with Saudi distributor QSSUN to accelerate deployments across Kuwait and the Gulf.

US-Iran Diplomacy: After calling off fresh strikes, Trump said Washington and Tehran are resuming talks to wind down the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a two-step plan starting with shipping access and then denuclearization. Iran Pushback: Iran denied direct talks with the US, saying discussions are only with Oman on a temporary Hormuz shipping route, while Tehran also warned it remains on alert. Maritime Pressure: CENTCOM said US forces redirected 44 commercial vessels and boarded two while enforcing the blockade, keeping Hormuz at the center of global oil and gas risk. Oil & Gas Markets: Brent and WTI slid about 5% on deal hopes, while pump prices stayed politically sensitive—AAA and GasBuddy reported US averages still above $4, with local spikes like Ogden’s $4.17. Regional Energy Security: Malaysia said it’s prioritizing energy resilience by diversifying gas and crude supply options amid geopolitical uncertainty. Broader Economic Hit: The World Bank cut the Philippines growth outlook, citing policy uncertainty and an oil-shock drag tied to the Middle East conflict.

US-Iran Diplomacy & Oil Markets: Trump said US-Iran talks will start Monday afternoon, aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran’s nuclear programme, after he called off a planned “biggest attack since World War II.” The news hit crude hard: Brent and WTI slid about 5–7% in early trading as risk premiums eased, while gold rose on the back of softer oil and a weaker dollar. Strait of Hormuz Logistics: Iran reiterated it is close to an Oman-linked maritime route arrangement, while shipping data showed traffic slowing in the strait; an LNG vessel operator (Gas Log) also reported a July incident while exiting Hormuz, with crew safe. OPEC+ Supply Signal: OPEC+ agreed to raise September output quotas by 188,000 bpd, adding another pressure point to prices even as Hormuz disruptions remain a wildcard. Regional Energy Security Spillover: Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean security concerns continued in parallel, with Turkey reviewing its Cyprus posture and Japan weighing participation in Saudi-led Red Sea security efforts. Household Impact (Iran): In Iran, food prices are reported to be surging, squeezing households even as the strike pause reshapes domestic messaging. Energy Costs Elsewhere: UK forecourts saw fuel theft jump sharply since the Iran crisis began, underscoring how energy shocks ripple into everyday systems.

OPEC+ Supply Signal: Seven OPEC+ members agreed to lift September oil output caps by 188,000 bpd as the Middle East war keeps shipping chokepoints tight, with analysts warning the market impact may lag while Hormuz remains constrained. Hormuz Diplomacy Clash: Iran says talks with Oman on a new Strait of Hormuz transit mechanism are in the “final stages,” while Tehran insists any arrangement won’t restore pre-war freedom of navigation—at odds with Trump’s claim that “parameters” for reopening are set. US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump says he’s halting planned strikes if a deal is made “rapidly,” as CENTCOM reports it redirected 35 commercial vessels and boarded two amid the blockade. Regional Energy Pressure: Kuwait raised July crude output to about 1.97mn bpd, suggesting some flows are holding despite disruption fears. Security Fallout: The US issued fresh travel alerts for Americans across the Middle East, warning of possible flight cancellations and airspace closures as tensions stay high.

US-Iran De-escalation: Trump says he cancelled planned US-Israeli strikes on Iran after Tehran and other Middle East partners asked for a pause, with a “rapid” deal framework tied to the “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat; Israel is said to have joined the commitment, while Iran warns of decisive retaliation if attacks resume. Energy Security & Shipping: The Hormuz focus is driving market nerves, with US embassies urging Americans to prepare for flight cancellations and airspace closures as escalation risk remains. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Corridor: Ankara and Baghdad extended their Kirkuk-Ceyhan/Ceyhan pipeline deal for one year, targeting at least 750,000 bpd to keep exports flowing as an alternative route amid Hormuz disruption. Cyber Threats: US authorities warn multiple states faced cyberattacks on water systems, with intelligence officials suspecting Iran behind a coordinated push—raising broader concerns for energy and water infrastructure resilience. Regional Economic Ripples: Middle East airline demand fell 14% y/y in June, reflecting ongoing conflict uncertainty and fuel-price pressure. Cyprus Gas Deal: Shell agreed to sell its 35% stake in Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas block to MOL for up to $720m, supporting regional gas supply planning.

Iran-US escalation: Trump said the US will hit Iran “very hard,” with reports of possible weekend strikes that could target energy infrastructure. Travel & security alerts: US embassies across the Middle East urged Americans to consider leaving or be ready to depart, warning of flight cancellations, airspace closures, and “unforeseen escalation.” Energy infrastructure risk: Iran defended its Hormuz blockade and tanker strikes as lawful self-defence, while warning Gulf states and Israel that attacks on civilian infrastructure could trigger wider retaliation. Markets & shipping: Oil prices settled higher, logging the strongest month since March, as Hormuz disruptions and tanker incidents kept crude flows tight; UN chief Guterres called for an immediate end to the conflict and restoration of navigation rights. Regional supply moves: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to export at least 750,000 bpd via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, aiming to reduce reliance on Gulf shipping lanes. Project momentum: Eni and TotalEnergies approved investment for Cyprus’ first offshore gas field, with gas slated for Egypt’s Damietta LNG hub. War’s side effects: A fire broke out at an oil refinery in Hewlêr (Erbil), while Houthis claimed they forced eight Saudi oil tankers to change course. Corporate windfall: ExxonMobil and Chevron posted blowout profits tied to the war-driven supply shock, even as gasoline prices stay politically sensitive.

Iran-U.S. energy escalation: The US and Israel are reportedly preparing large-scale strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure (power plants and oil refineries), with talk of action as early as the Aug 1-2 weekend, while Trump says the US will hit Iran “very hard” to force concessions. Retaliation threats: Iran warns it has “extensive response plans,” including targeting US and Israeli energy infrastructure, as lawmakers in Washington again fail to rein in the war via a War Powers vote. Strait of Hormuz shipping risk: UKMTO says a tanker near Oman’s Lima was hit and disabled, with another explosion reported near Khasab—on top of claims of tankers being rerouted amid renewed blockade fears. Crypto sanctions pressure: The US Treasury sanctions Iranian crypto exchanges and freezes nearly $1bn in crypto, tracing billions in Iran-linked flows—aimed at choking sanctions evasion routes. Egypt power costs: Egypt’s electricity ministry raises 2026 residential tariffs, averaging ~12% for most consumption brackets while keeping the first bracket unchanged. Regional energy corridors: Azerbaijan and Türkiye agree to accelerate interconnector and green corridor projects, pushing energy security beyond oil.

Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea Security: Iran says it has halted two tankers under US escort and claims “transit…is not possible,” while US officials insist the strait remains open—keeping crude prices volatile as shipping risk spills into broader energy routes. Saudi Arabia meanwhile is pushing a 14-nation maritime defense coalition to protect Red Sea energy lanes, with Riyadh hosting the HQ and joint operations center. Oil Market Shock: July’s war-driven price lift is showing up in refined products too, with diesel up 27% and gasoline up 8% for the month, and analysts warning refining limits could keep prices elevated. Big Oil Windfalls vs Politics: Exxon and Chevron posted record quarterly profits tied to supply disruptions, but executives warn gasoline prices may stay high, raising political pressure as voters feel the pump pain. Cyber & Civil Infrastructure: US officials are investigating whether Iran-linked hackers targeted dozens of Minnesota municipal water systems, with reports citing operational disruptions but no evidence of unsafe drinking water. Environmental Risk: Reuters reports an oil spill from a shadow fleet tanker spreading off Oman, raising concerns for coastal damage during monsoon season. Regional Diplomacy: India’s foreign minister urged Iran to avoid attacks on commercial ships and seafarers amid renewed hostilities.

Middle East War & Oil Prices: Oil eased on Friday as tanker movement improved through key West Asia routes, with Brent down about 1.2% to $88 and WTI around $82, though both still track roughly a 20% monthly gain as the US–Iran conflict keeps a risk premium in markets. Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia moved to set up a multinational maritime defense coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden, with 14 countries backing the framework—aimed at safeguarding energy supply lines amid Houthi threats. Egypt Damietta Port Shock: Iran’s foreign minister warned against “false-flag operations” after a drone attack sparked fires at Egypt’s Damietta Port involving gas vessels; Egypt says it recovered wreckage and is investigating, while the incident raises fears for Suez-linked energy exports. Kuwait Escalation: Iran claimed drone strikes hit a US base in Kuwait, as the wider exchange of strikes continues across the region. Retail Fuel Pressure: UAE petrol prices are set to rise in August for a second straight month, reflecting volatile crude swings tied to renewed hostilities. Energy Trade Resilience: Pakistan received another long-term LNG cargo from Qatar, boosting gas security despite Strait of Hormuz risks. Regional Spillover Costs: The ADB approved $450m support for Cambodia and Sri Lanka as Middle East conflict pressures household budgets and economies across Asia.

Damietta LNG Security: Qatar condemned drone attacks on two LNG vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port, calling it a direct threat to global energy supplies and urging de-escalation, as Egypt confirmed the fire was caused by a drone and investigations continue. Red Sea Shipping Shield: Saudi Arabia pushed ahead with a multinational maritime defense coalition to protect the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, with 14 founding countries and EU participation, as Houthi attacks keep pressure on oil tankers and trade routes. Hormuz Risk Premium: Markets tracked renewed US-Iran missile and drone exchanges and shifting hopes around Strait of Hormuz management talks, with oil prices whipsawing as investors weigh possible reopening against persistent security threats. War Powers Fallout: In Washington, the US Senate rejected a war powers resolution to limit Trump’s Iran authority (49-50), underscoring political friction at home while the conflict keeps disrupting energy expectations. Corporate Impact: Shell reported net profit tripling to $10.8bn in Q2, citing Middle East war-driven oil price strength even as gas output fell after damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub. Public Pressure: An AP-NORC poll found about two-thirds of Americans say the Iran war has not been worth it, while Trump’s approval on handling Iran slipped—adding pressure as energy costs remain a key concern.

US-Iran Escalation: The US says it carried out a “heavy wave” of strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of IRGC targets after Tehran’s missile attack on US forces in Jordan; Iran’s state media reported casualties on Qeshm, while Jordan intercepted five missiles launched from Iran. US-Saudi Iraq Role: Washington and Riyadh also struck Iran-backed militias in eastern Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers, with Gulf states backing Saudi self-defense. Shipping & Energy Risk: Strait of Hormuz traffic is reported at “crisis-era lows,” while drone attacks in Egypt’s Damietta port sparked fires on gas vessels and a US-linked tanker, raising fears the war is spreading beyond the Gulf. Oil Market Shock: Brent and WTI swung sharply as conflict risk flared, with tankers still leaving the region via alternative routes. Corporate Impact: Shell’s quarterly profit more than doubled to $9.84bn as higher oil and gas prices and trading volatility boosted earnings. Regional Energy Projects: Egypt signed an EGP 20bn deal for a high-voltage transmission line to evacuate Gulf of Suez wind power, while Kuwait and Jordan advanced solar and green ammonia plans. Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia is pushing an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, after threats of blockade and tolls around Bab al-Mandab.

Oil Markets: Brent jumped more than 7% back toward $90 a barrel and WTI rose about 6–7% after Trump vowed a forceful response to an Iran missile attack on US forces in Jordan; the rally also got a boost from falling US crude inventories. Hormuz Pressure: Washington rolled out fresh sanctions targeting Iran-linked shipping and “extortion” networks tied to Strait of Hormuz transit, as Iran again tightened controls and rejected Oman’s shared-management idea. Iraq Strikes: US and Saudi forces hit Iran-aligned Popular Mobilisation Forces bases in eastern Iraq, killing at least 20, while Iraqi officials condemned the strikes as a sovereignty violation. Egypt LNG Disruption: Drone attacks sparked fires at Egypt’s Damietta port, hitting a US-owned floating storage LNG vessel and spreading to another gas tanker—no casualties reported, but it signals the conflict is reaching new energy hubs. Regional Air Defences: Jordan said it intercepted five Iranian missiles as tensions spiked across the Middle East. Business Impact: Baker Hughes warned Middle East disruptions may dent oilfield services revenue slightly, even as it expects overall spending to decline modestly.

Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC Navy says it stopped three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after warnings were ignored, as Tehran keeps control of the key chokepoint. Saudi-US Iraq Strikes: Saudi Arabia says it carried out joint precision strikes with US CENTCOM in eastern Iraq against Iran-backed militia sites tied to drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities; CENTCOM says the strikes targeted logistics and weapons sites and that attacks on US forces failed. Regional Fallout: Iraq’s prime minister called an emergency national security meeting after the US-Saudi strikes, while Kuwait condemned the militia attacks as a threat to Gulf stability. Oil Market Whiplash: Oil prices swung on the renewed fighting—dropping earlier on hopes of easing US-Iran tensions, then jumping again after missile and strike developments. Energy Diplomacy vs Hard Power: Oman’s proposal for joint Hormuz management was rejected by Iran, which insists Iranian control over key transit routes. Supply-Route Watch: Shipping data showed Bab el-Mandeb traffic at its highest in a week, with some crude tankers exiting toward the Gulf of Aden and Pakistan. Egypt Gas Rumor Denied: An Egyptian source denied a reported new natural gas deal with Israel.