US-Iran Ceasefire Watch: The US and Iran have reportedly agreed a tentative 60-day memorandum to extend their truce and restart nuclear talks, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be “unrestricted” and mines removal discussed—yet everything still hinges on President Trump’s sign-off as both sides trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Oil & Fuel Prices: Optimism around Hormuz reopening is easing crude and pulling down fuel forecasts, with Philippine diesel seen falling about ₱6.50–₱7.50/l and gasoline ₱3.50–₱4.50/l next week, while markets also react to the deal’s uncertainty. Shipping Through Hormuz: Strait traffic is only slightly up—daily transits remain far below pre-war levels—while brokers warn security guarantees, mine clearance, and war-risk insurance are still the bottlenecks. Sanctions Pressure: Even as talks move, the US has hit Iran-linked “dark fleet” oil shipping and targeted the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and Iranian airlines, keeping pressure on Tehran’s oil revenue. Regional Energy Fallout: Syria’s Euphrates flooding is worsening after Turkey increases dam releases, disrupting infrastructure and raising emergency concerns. Investment Shift: The IEA says natural gas project spending is set to rise while Middle East oil investment is expected to soften, as firms diversify away from Hormuz-linked risk. Saudi Pricing Signal: Saudi Arabia may cut July crude OSPs to Asia for a second month as demand looks sluggish.