AGP Executive Report

Red Sea Shock to Oil Markets: Brent surged past $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, raising fears of a wider Middle East shipping squeeze as Trump vowed “major military punishment” for Iran-backed strikes. GCC-Jordan Condemnation: GCC states and Jordan jointly denounced Iranian aggression, citing attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure and reaffirming self-defense and freedom of navigation through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. US-Iran Escalation Politics: The US House passed a non-binding war powers resolution to end Iran hostilities unless Congress authorizes, while Trump signaled he is close to approving a “massive” expanded attack; UN experts warned the renewed fighting is undermining a recent MOU. Nuclear Deal, New Conditions: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a long-term civil nuclear cooperation “123 Agreement,” with IAEA awaiting formal requests, as Trump added that Riyadh must normalize ties with Israel—fueling arms-race concerns. Energy Costs at Home: Higher crude is already feeding into fuel prices, with AAA reporting Alabama gasoline up week-on-week, and broader inflation worries returning. Regional Energy Projects: Egypt and Russia discussed expanding cooperation including a logistics corridor for grain and petroleum products and progress on the El Dabaa nuclear plant.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Houthis say they struck two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) and imposed a naval blockade, while UKMTO reported a projectile hit that sparked a fire—raising fears of a second global chokepoint alongside Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iranian military targets as Trump warned he’ll destroy a bridge or power plant for every Hormuz ship attack, with Iran warning of reciprocal retaliation. Oil Market Jitters: Brent pushed to six-week highs near $96-$97 as traders priced in longer disruptions; analysts warn the Strait and Bab el-Mandeb risks could keep refined fuel markets tight. Nuclear Deal With Saudi: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a “123” civilian nuclear cooperation and safeguards agreement, with a pathway for enrichment after a joint study—sparking fresh proliferation concerns in Washington and the region. Regional Energy Fallout: Iraq’s oil revenue loss is estimated at $40-$45bn since the war began, and CPC pipeline loading was suspended after attacks near the Black Sea terminal. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers’ talks with partners focused on energy and food security amid West Asia turmoil, with calls for stronger supply-chain and power-grid cooperation.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: US President Trump vowed “one bridge or power plant” destroyed in Iran for every Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran warned of “eye for an eye” retaliation and said infrastructure strikes would trigger broader regional targeting. Oil Markets: The threats and continued US-Iran strikes pushed Brent above $95 and kept crude up around 3% as traders priced in renewed supply-route disruption. Diplomacy vs Pressure: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Asian leaders in Manila that any Iranian tolling/control of the strait would set a dangerous precedent, as talks appear stalled. Regional Spillover: The US and Pakistan condemned Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, with Rubio linking the blockade risk to Iran’s wider pressure campaign. Nuclear Deal Watch: Saudi Arabia’s pathway to enrich nuclear fuel under a US-backed pact drew alarm in Washington over safeguards and inspections. Energy Infrastructure Risk: Iran’s IRGC warned strikes on bridges/power sites could mean blackouts for regional allies, underscoring how quickly power and shipping risks are feeding into energy costs. Local Energy Moves: Cyprus signed an MoU to sell Aphrodite gas to Egypt, aiming to move the offshore field toward production.

US-Iran Strikes: The US completed its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran, targeting military operations, maritime assets, drone storage and logistics, while Washington says the Strait of Hormuz remains open and has helped move about 900 ships and 450 million barrels since early May. Red Sea Shipping Risk: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis escalated the pressure by threatening a naval blockade of Saudi ports; three Saudi crude tankers reportedly made U-turns in the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, adding fresh supply risk. Oil & Gold: Brent pushed near $93 and WTI above $86 on renewed supply fears; gold hit a two-week high as investors weighed Middle East friction and rate outlook. Diplomacy Under Strain: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN the US is open to talks but says Iran is “not serious,” warning against any precedent of a state controlling an international waterway. Saudi Nuclear Deal: Trump approved a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation pact with Saudi Arabia that could allow uranium enrichment after feasibility work, with Congress review expected. Regional Energy Impact: Reuters warns Asian refiners may struggle to ramp up in August as Gulf crude exports face delays, while UN agencies warn energy shocks could worsen hunger.

US-Iran Escalation: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the Iran war has cost $37.5B so far, as Washington weighs “ten times harder” strikes and Trump warns the U.S. is “not finished,” with threats aimed at the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex near Natanz. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Shipping through Hormuz is largely stalled, with Iran attacking a tanker and markets watching for wider disruption of roughly one-fifth of global crude and gas flows. Houthi Red Sea Threat: Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, forcing Saudi crude tankers to reroute and raising fears of a new chokepoint squeeze via Bab el-Mandeb. Diplomacy Under Strain: Pakistan’s mediation push continues as Iran’s interior minister visits Islamabad, but Trump says the U.S. has “no interest in meeting,” while the UN urges stepped-up diplomacy. Regional Energy Fallout: Kuwait reports power and desalination units hit for a fourth day; fuel prices are rising again in the Philippines amid Middle East tension. Aid for Resilience: Kuwait’s KFAED and UNDP signed a $3M grant to fund solar and efficiency upgrades for Lebanon’s public services, cutting reliance on diesel generators. Trade Signals: India exported $545M of goods to Iraq in Q1, led by rice and petroleum oils.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes again for a 10th straight night, with Washington hitting command centres and air defences and Tehran warning it is in “full-scale war,” while Iran also claimed attacks on US assets in Bahrain and Kuwait. Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran said it attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and crews abandoned ship; vessel crossings fell and insurers stayed nervous as both sides targeted infrastructure tied to commercial shipping. Red Sea Shock: Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, raising the stakes for Red Sea crude flows and shipping costs. Oil Market Whiplash: Brent hovered near $88–$90 and WTI around $82–$83 as mediation hopes briefly eased prices, but Goldman flagged a risk of crude crossing $120 if Hormuz disruptions persist. Energy Security Pressure: US oil reserves slid to multi-decade lows, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since the early 1980s. Regional Energy Projects: ADNOC approved a $6.2bn gas development to boost production from 2030, while Egypt resumed electricity exports to Libya after overdue payments were settled. Policy Relief in Europe: UK PM Andy Burnham announced VAT-free household electricity from Oct 1, cutting typical bills by about £45 amid ongoing regional energy volatility. Diplomacy Push: ASEAN foreign ministers urged an immediate halt to hostilities and called for safe, unimpeded transit through Hormuz.

US-Iran Escalation and Oil Shock: Brent jumped above $90 and WTI rose as the US extended strikes into a ninth straight night and Iran retaliated across the Gulf, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reported as sharply subdued and tankers hit—pushing fuel costs back toward the $4-a-gallon level in the US. Regional Shipping Pressure: Iran-linked attacks and US naval moves are tightening the energy logistics picture, while Yemen’s Houthis declared a maritime embargo/naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening Red Sea access and adding another risk layer for oil flows. EU Methane Rules Softened: The European Commission recommended pausing methane penalties for 2027-2030 after US pressure, citing energy supply security amid Hormuz disruption. Local Fuel Pain in the US: Gas prices climbed across multiple states, including Montana and Baltimore, with analysts pointing to Hormuz-linked volatility and strained refining capacity. Egypt–Tanzania Energy and Trade: Egypt’s Sisi met Tanzania’s Hassan to expand agriculture, logistics, electricity and renewable energy cooperation, including a proposed Safaga–Dar es Salaam shipping route. Nuclear Flashpoint: Iran’s nuclear watchdog condemned a US strike on the Darkhovin nuclear power plant, while reports also swirl around Saudi enrichment talks—raising long-term energy and security stakes.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched a ninth straight night of strikes on Iran, saying the goal is to “degrade” Tehran’s ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran claimed it hit US-linked targets in Kuwait, Syria and Jordan and said two oil tankers were “exploded and immobilised.” Hormuz Shipping Shock: Shipping through the strait stayed thin over the weekend, with only four ships reported crossing on Sunday and fewer LNG movements, keeping a supply-risk premium in oil prices. Oil & Fuel Spike: Brent pushed above $90 a barrel again, while US gasoline prices returned to $4/gal; Europe also saw gas prices jump sharply, and markets revived inflation worries. Diplomacy Still Open: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington remains open to a diplomatic solution if Iran changes course, pointing to a “split” inside Iran’s leadership. Gulf Civil Defence: Kuwait activated air defences and Bahrain reported sirens as drones and missiles flew, with damage claims focused on civilian infrastructure. Regional Energy Moves: Egypt’s Petrojet and ENPPI secured a $6bn Oman energy EPC framework deal, while Namibia confirmed state backing for a green hydrogen project and broader energy investment. Market Spillovers: Ryanair’s profit fell as jet fuel costs rose on the conflict; Asian equities were mixed and tech weakness weighed on sentiment.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iraq is accelerating plans for an oil pipeline to Mediterranean ports in Türkiye and Syria as the Strait of Hormuz blockade disrupts exports, with a Basra–Kirkuk to Ceyhan/Baniyas feasibility study underway and possible extension to Aqaba. Gulf Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Kuwait says Iran has hit electricity, water and renewable energy facilities, causing fires and “severe damage,” while Iran also claims U.S. strikes targeted the under-construction Darkhovin nuclear power plant. Shipping Control Claims: Iran’s IRGC says it has “full control” of the Strait and warns no oil or LNG tanker will pass without permission, after reporting incidents involving U.S.-backed vessels. Nuclear Watch: The IAEA is investigating the Darkhovin attack reports and says the site is in early construction with no nuclear material on its last visit, urging restraint near nuclear sites. Market Fallout: Analysts link renewed U.S.-Iran fighting to higher oil prices and fuel-price anxiety, while investors weigh inflation relief against energy-driven inflation risks. Regional Ripple Effects: Iraq’s parliament finance committee says Hormuz closure has cut export levels and pushed the government toward domestic and foreign borrowing to cover salary and spending needs.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched an eighth straight night of strikes on Iran after two US troops were killed in a Jordan base attack; CENTCOM says targets included IRGC-linked coastal surveillance, air defenses, maritime capabilities and missile/drone storage, while Iran retaliated by hitting US bases in Kuwait with drones. Gulf Energy Risk: Oil markets jumped as Strait of Hormuz disruption fears returned; reports say shipping is heavily restricted and Kuwait’s power and water infrastructure was hit, with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation citing damage and injuries. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan and Kuwait urged Washington and Tehran to uphold the Islamabad MoU and avoid further escalation as Gulf states condemned attacks as war crimes. Iraq Energy Moves: Iraq is studying a Basra–Kirkuk–Türkiye (Ceyhan) pipeline with a possible branch to Syria’s Baniyas to diversify exports away from Hormuz, while bp and ConocoPhillips agreed a 42% stake deal for Kirkuk redevelopment. Business & Infrastructure: SGS signed an MoU with Al Jeri Investment to support energy and industrial services in Saudi Arabia, and the EIB approved €17.4bn to boost Europe’s energy security, including projects in Egypt and North Africa. Human Cost: In Nigeria’s north, families link higher petrol prices from the Iran war to worsening child malnutrition.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Oil prices jumped over 4% to about $88–$89/bbl as the US-Iran fight widened and the waterway’s disruption risk stayed front and center, with the IEA warning energy security could worsen if flows don’t improve soon. MoU Breakdown: Iran says it has suspended commitments under the interim US-Iran MoU as strikes intensify, while the US says it has continued a seventh straight night of attacks on Iranian military and infrastructure targets. Gulf Infrastructure Hit: Kuwait reported damage and fires after Iranian strikes on a power and water desalination plant and an oil facility, injuring firefighters and an oil worker; desalination vulnerability is now a key theme across the region. US Casualties in Jordan: CENTCOM confirmed two US service members killed and one missing after Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on a Jordan base, the first deaths from direct Iranian fire since the war’s early days. Diplomacy & Exports: Iraq and Syria signed an MoU to build a crude export pipeline to Syria’s Mediterranean coast to diversify routes away from Hormuz, with capacity to be set in a technical study. Regional Energy Security Warning: Iran warned UAE airports and ports could be targeted if the US strikes Iranian civilian infrastructure, raising the stakes for Gulf logistics.

US-Iran War Escalation: The US and Iran traded a seventh straight night of strikes across the Middle East, with Washington targeting Iranian military logistics, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities while Tehran warned of “full-scale” retaliation and hit US-linked sites in Kuwait and Jordan. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Kuwait reported an Iranian strike on a power generation and desalination station, forcing units offline and triggering fires; Iran also claimed attacks on desalination and electricity assets in Iran’s Hormozgan province. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The fight is increasingly about the Strait of Hormuz, with the US enforcing a naval blockade and Iran claiming it stopped “violating” vessels; CENTCOM rejected IRGC claims that two oil tankers exploded after mine hits. Oil Market Jitters: Brent pushed toward $88 as shipping fears and potential supply disruption lifted crude and gas prices, while regional attacks raised the risk of wider chokepoint disruption. Iraq-Syria Pipeline Deal: Iraq and Syria signed an MoU to rehabilitate the Haditha–Baniyas crude pipeline, with Chevron expected to play a key role—an effort to improve regional connectivity beyond Hormuz. Pakistan Red Line: Pakistan told Iran that Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are “attacks on Pakistan,” complicating how far Islamabad may be pulled into the wider West Asia energy-security shock.

US-Iran Escalation and Shipping Risk: The U.S. expanded strikes on Iranian infrastructure, hitting bridges and collapsing a tower at Shahid Kalantari Port in Chabahar, while Iran retaliated by targeting a power and desalination plant in Kuwait—raising fresh fears for Gulf energy and water supplies as Hormuz disruption continues. Oil Price Pressure: Brent pushed higher on renewed hostilities, with analysts pointing to tighter expectations if the Strait stays disrupted longer; meanwhile, U.S. pump prices are starting to climb again as crude holds around the $80s. Iraq’s Route Diversification Push: Iraq signed deals with U.S. firms to develop alternative shipping routes away from the Strait of Hormuz, and Iraq and Syria agreed to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, aiming to cut reliance on Hormuz. Iraq-US Investment Drive: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi unveiled an “open-door” approach for U.S. investors, pitching long-term partnerships across energy and industry. Renewables in the Mix: A U.S.-Iraq solar project is moving forward with feasibility work underway, as Baghdad seeks to diversify power and reduce dependence on Iranian gas imports. Regional Security Spillover: Iran-linked attacks and counterattacks also drew attention to Gulf ports and logistics hubs that could face retaliation. Energy Markets Watch: Baker Hughes said U.S. rig counts hit the highest since April 2025, while a planned Canadian refinery maintenance could tighten northeastern U.S. fuel supply.

US-Iran Escalation: The US kept up its sixth straight night of strikes, hitting bridges and infrastructure in Iran including around Bandar Khamir and reportedly collapsing a tower at Chabahar, while Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against US-linked sites in Gulf states and claimed an attack on a US command center in Syria. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: With shipping effectively constrained and Iran warning it could shut exports, the conflict is again centered on the Strait of Hormuz; the IEA chief warned global energy security is at risk unless flows resume soon. Red Sea Risk: Reuters reports Iran has urged Yemen’s Houthis to prepare a Bab el-Mandeb closure if US targets power infrastructure, raising fears for Saudi export routes. Markets: Oil prices climbed toward a steep weekly gain (Brent near $85), while copper and industrial metals slid on war-driven demand worries; investors also rotated risk-off across Asia. Policy & Diplomacy: China and Pakistan urged Washington and Tehran to halt hostilities and return to talks, as a US-Iran interim ceasefire continues to unravel. Energy Business: Iraq pitched an “Energy City” on the Al-Faw Peninsula to attract US investment, while Dana Gas shut Khor Mor facilities over security threats.

US-Iran Escalation: The US reimposed a naval blockade and struck Iranian coastal defence and missile sites, while Iran retaliated with missiles and drones and accused attacks near a children’s cancer hospital in Ahvaz; Iran calls the Strait of Hormuz a “red line” and says it can control it from anywhere in its territory. Red Sea Contingency: Reuters reports Iran has told Yemen’s Houthis to be ready to disrupt Bab al-Mandeb if Washington targets Iranian power infrastructure, raising the risk of simultaneous pressure on Hormuz and the Red Sea. Oil Market Pulse: Brent hovered near one-month highs as traders priced in Hormuz disruption risk; Brent slipped to about $84.37 and WTI to about $79.42, while analysts warn simultaneous chokepoint hits would spike freight and insurance costs. Regional Spillover: Pakistan urged US-Iran talks after Houthis’ attacks on Saudi Arabia, warning the conflict could pull Islamabad in. Iraq Energy Push: Iraq’s PM Al-Zaidi met Chevron to expand investments and speed projects as Baghdad targets higher crude output and new export routes. Gulf Investment Abroad: Gulf states’ Africa push continues, with UAE’s ADNOC Distribution taking over Shell’s South Africa fuel business, part of $100bn+ GCC investment in Africa over the past decade. Power/Policy Watch: Egypt’s reserves hit a record $55bn+ as households wait for price relief, with officials stressing de-escalation to protect trade and energy markets.

Hormuz Flashpoint: The US launched fresh strikes on Iran, targeting coastal defenses and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade, while Iran retaliated by hitting US-linked bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan; Iran also warned it could halt Middle East energy exports and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut. Oil & Shipping Shock: Hormuz traffic plunged after the blockade returned, with Kpler tracking just seven vessels transiting on Wednesday and no VLCCs or LNG carriers crossing; traders weighed whether disruptions will become tangible as Brent slipped slightly from near one-month highs. Market Mood: European stocks traded cautiously as higher oil fed inflation worries, while gold eased on no sign of de-escalation; in Asia, tech-led selloffs hit Seoul as Middle East risk spooked investors. Policy & Costs: The UK’s heating-oil customers face regulatory gaps after CMA flagged price spikes, and Japan’s bond yields rose as oil-driven inflation fears returned. Regional Energy Deals: Iraq and the US discussed a $60bn economic partnership, including steps to boost oil output and build alternative export routes to reduce Hormuz exposure; Jordan and Iraq also pushed ahead on the Basra–Aqaba pipeline talks. Local Fallout: Alabama drivers saw pump prices tick up again as the Iran conflict keeps oil markets volatile.