AGP Executive Report

Oil Markets: Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level in nearly six months, and gained about 6% this week as fears of Middle East supply disruptions mounted. Saudi Security: Saudi air defences intercepted missiles and drones as the Houthis claimed attacks on airports and oil sites; Riyadh airport resumed limited operations, but the group warned it remained a target. Iran and Hormuz: Washington has strike options ready, while President Trump has threatened fresh action. Iran’s foreign minister says renewed fighting would not change Tehran’s position, keeping risks high around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route. UAE Spill: An offshore oil leak has prompted beach closures in Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain as authorities work to contain it and assess environmental damage. Winter Gas: Iran’s parliament speaker urged households to cut gas use by 10% as officials warn of major winter shortfalls following damage to infrastructure. Regional Power Links: Jordan plans to expand electricity exchanges with Egypt and advance a connection with Iraq, strengthening regional supply links.

Supply Risks: Brent climbed to about $117 a barrel, its highest in six months, as Houthi attacks heightened fears for Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping. The Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities, refineries, airports and the East-West Pipeline; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles, with debris falling near several cities. Hormuz Tensions: Iran reported another supertanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, after claiming two tankers struck mines. The incidents add to disruption risks on a vital oil route. Iran Conflict: President Trump said the US could strike Iran as soon as Sunday or reach a deal, keeping markets on edge. UAE Spill: An offshore oil leak has led Ras Al Khaimah, Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah to close beaches as authorities assess the environmental impact. Iraq Exports: Baghdad is pressing ahead with plans to buy oil tankers and expand fuel reserves to protect exports and revenues amid shipping disruptions.

Saudi Supply Risks: Saudi air defences intercepted missiles and a drone aimed at the kingdom, as Houthis intensify attacks. Yanbu, a major oil export hub that helps Saudi Arabia bypass Hormuz, is among the threatened locations. Oil Markets: Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel, near a six-month high, as attacks on Saudi Arabia and wider regional tensions raised fears of supply disruption. Hormuz Standoff: Iran’s IRGC claims full control of the strait and says two supertankers struck mines while using an unauthorised route; renewed US strikes remain a risk. UAE Spill: Ras Al Khaimah has closed all beaches after an oil spill, following closures in Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah. The slick’s extent and environmental impact are still being assessed. Energy and Water Technology: At Dubai’s WETEX exhibition, companies explored using AI to improve energy and water systems, even as its power and water demands pose challenges.

Oil Supply Risks: Brent crude touched $117.45 a barrel, its highest in nearly six months, as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised disruption fears. A tanker spill off the UAE coast prompted beach closures, while Iran’s IRGC said two tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz; the cause of the spill remains unconfirmed. Hormuz Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Türkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and four European countries opposed military action against Iran and called for safe passage to resume through the strait. Iran’s Oil Pressure: The US blockade has sharply curtailed Iranian oil exports, adding pressure to government revenues. Clean Energy: Iran says its largest solar plant has expanded to 277 megawatts, part of efforts to ease power shortages.

Oil and Shipping: Brent climbed above $114 a barrel, its highest in more than five months, as fears of renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran rattled supply markets. Iran says seven tankers were hit or damaged near the Strait of Hormuz; the claims have not been independently verified. Saudi Targets: The Houthis claimed fresh attacks on Saudi airports and an Aramco facility, after strikes killed two people at Dammam airport and damaged the Shaybah oil field. The attacks have heightened concerns over Gulf energy security and disrupted flights. Iran Tensions: Tehran threatened US-linked energy and technology infrastructure across the Gulf if attacks resume, while Washington ordered some staff to leave Saudi Arabia. Longer-Term Outlook: IEA chief Fatih Birol expects the energy crisis to persist into 2027. Separately, Canada’s AtkinsRéalis is competing to help build Türkiye’s planned nuclear plants as Ottawa and Ankara deepen energy ties.

Oil Shock: Brent surged near $113 a barrel after deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field and Dammam airport. Shaybah’s operations were unaffected, but the strikes and reported damage to seven tankers near Hormuz have renewed supply fears. Aramco’s chief says the conflict has removed about 3 billion barrels from global supply; Gulf exports have recovered to around 80% of pre-war levels, but shipping costs remain high. Escalation Risk: Washington is moving troops and diplomats from regional bases as the US and Israel prepare possible new strikes on Iran after the US midterms. Tehran warns of a wider response, adding to uncertainty around Hormuz and Red Sea shipping. Iraq’s Power Supply: Delays to equipment shipments through Hormuz threaten schedules for two 125MW Chinese-built units, which Iraq hopes to bring online before next summer. Clean Energy: Abu Dhabi’s $6.1 billion Masdar-EWEC project will pair 5.2GW of solar with battery storage to provide continuous clean power from 2027.

Oil Shock: Brent climbed to a five-month high near $112 a barrel as attacks heightened fears of supply disruption. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed seven vessels were hit or damaged near the Strait of Hormuz; the reports have not been independently verified. Saudi Energy Security: A drone targeting Aramco’s Shaybah field was intercepted, but falling debris killed two people and injured two others. Saudi authorities said operations were unaffected. Attacks also struck Dammam airport, prompting the US to order some personnel and families to leave Saudi Arabia. Gulf Outlook: The IMF now expects Gulf economies to contract 4.8% in 2026 as the conflict disrupts exports and weighs on non-oil activity.

Saudi Oil Security: Two people were killed by falling debris after Saudi air defences intercepted a drone targeting Aramco’s Shaybah field; operations were unaffected. The UK is sending Typhoon jets to help defend Saudi infrastructure as Houthi attacks escalate. Hormuz Risks: Explosions were reported near the Strait of Hormuz, while a drone fell near a tanker in Iraqi waters. Brent has topped $110 a barrel amid fears for supply, and Iraq is discussing a revived pipeline to Syria that could carry at least 2 million barrels a day, reducing reliance on Hormuz. Iraq’s Oil Capacity: Baghdad signed an agreement with ExxonMobil for a seawater project supplying 2.5 million barrels a day for oilfield injection, supporting production and reservoir pressure. Iran Sanctions: Washington targeted a Panama- and Greece-based law firm, shipping agents and seven vessels accused of helping Iran move oil and other goods through shadow-fleet networks.

Hormuz and Oil: Brent topped $110 a barrel as attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Saudi energy sites heightened supply fears. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said mines struck tankers; the US military disputed the claims. Oil shipping costs have surged sevenfold, adding pressure to global prices. Diplomacy: Qatar says US-Iran contacts are continuing, with Pakistan also mediating, but Tehran says talks depend on Washington meeting its demands. Gulf Security: Houthi attacks on Saudi targets have prompted Britain to send Typhoon jets for defensive missions, with Riyadh’s energy infrastructure among the concerns. Regional Energy: Eni has begun bringing Egypt’s Meleiha Phase 2 gas facilities online. Türkiye is also preparing wind and solar tenders expected to attract about $2 billion, as Ankara targets meeting 70% of its energy needs from renewables by 2040.

Hormuz Supply Risk: Oil touched a five-month high as attacks on shipping and Saudi infrastructure heightened fears over Middle East supplies. Iran said a third tanker caught fire after hitting a mine near the Strait of Hormuz, while reports point to more ships suffering engine-room damage. Diplomacy: Qatar says U.S.-Iran contacts are continuing and urges a settlement to reopen Hormuz, but Tehran says talks depend on Washington meeting its demands. Iraq’s Power Plans: Baghdad scrapped import duties on solar systems and approved a contract for 600–1,000 megawatts of electricity for the northern grid. Egyptian Gas: Eni has started commissioning its Meleiha Phase 2 project in the Western Desert, designed to process up to 100 million cubic feet of gas a day. Türkiye’s Energy Mix: Ankara aims to meet about 70% of its energy needs from renewables by 2040.

Oil and Shipping: Brent climbed above $111 a barrel as attacks on Saudi targets and shipping risks around the Gulf kept supply fears high. The IEA says it is ready to coordinate another emergency oil release; Washington is also exploring a route to return some sanctioned tankers to lawful service. Saudi Security: The UK will deploy Typhoon jets on defensive missions to protect Saudi cities and critical infrastructure from Houthi attacks, which have also prompted Riyadh to postpone its flagship investment forum. Iraq’s Oil Sector: Gulf Keystone and ShaMaran agreed a $601 million merger that would create a Kurdistan producer with estimated output of 53,000 barrels a day. Iraq’s crude shipments to China surged 248% from August to September, reaching about 1.18 million barrels a day. Power and Gas: Türkiye plans $80 billion in transmission and distribution investment by 2035, as renewables reach 80 gigawatts of installed capacity. Qatar is planning two power plants for Lebanon and a 20-year LNG supply deal.

Saudi Oil Flows: Exports averaged 5.55 million barrels a day in the first half of October, below September’s 7.16 million. With Ras Tanura shipments down, Yanbu and the East-West pipeline are helping keep crude moving. Rising Security Risks: The Houthis claimed attacks on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oil field; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the claims. The attacks prompted Riyadh to postpone its flagship Future Investment Initiative conference until 2027. Hormuz and Prices: Brent hovered above $109 a barrel amid threats to Gulf shipping. Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within six days if Washington accepts its terms. Qatar warned that disruptions to Gulf energy supplies threaten global markets and supply chains. Regional Energy Ties: Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan are exploring cooperation on solar, wind and oil and gas, including a Saudi company’s planned initial $200 million investment in Afghan gas fields.

Hormuz Risk: Iran says it could reopen the Strait within six days if Washington accepts its terms, but tanker mine strikes and a surge in attacks on commercial shipping keep oil flows at risk. Brent eased to about $107 a barrel after nearing $110, helped by a US pause on new Russia sanctions. Gulf Energy Security: Qatar warned that the energy shock from the Iran war has yet to peak, with further disruption possible in the coming months. The warning comes as shipping through Hormuz remains unstable and repairs to Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex are expected to take years. Saudi Arabia: Egypt’s National Defence Council backed “all necessary and possible” support for Riyadh as Houthi attacks intensify. Any troop deployment remains undecided, pending parliamentary approval; the attacks threaten Saudi infrastructure and regional oil security. Fuel Supplies: Diesel could stay tight into 2027 after Middle East and Russian export losses reached about 1.3 million barrels a day in September, pushing refining margins near record highs.

Hormuz Risk: Iran’s IRGC says a tanker caught fire after striking a mine south of the Strait of Hormuz, the latest in a series of reported vessel attacks. Tehran says it could reopen the waterway within six or seven days if Washington accepts its conditions, but shipping risks are helping push oil toward $110 a barrel. Saudi Security: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have renewed threats to energy and civilian infrastructure. Egypt’s National Defence Council approved “all necessary” support for Riyadh; parliament is still considering authorization for any troop deployment. Iraq’s Oil Push: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered plans to raise oil production and revenues and directed an investigation into alleged oil ministry corruption, as export disruption and falling revenues strain the economy. Gas Expansion: Saudi Arabia is planning another phase of Aramco’s Master Gas System beyond 2032, building on a current expansion designed to add 3.15 billion cubic feet per day of capacity by 2028.

Hormuz Shipping Risk: UKMTO confirmed 12 vessel attacks in the week to Oct. 16, while warning more may have gone unreported. Iran’s Guards say two supertankers hit mines and caught fire; a separate tanker was damaged by an RPG off Saudi Arabia. Reopening Talks: Tehran says its offer to reopen the Strait within seven days remains on the table, conditional on lifting the US blockade and sanctions and ending fighting across the region. Washington is pressing for a firm commitment that Iran will not rebuild its nuclear program. Saudi Energy Security: Houthi attacks have targeted Saudi energy and aviation sites as fighting in Yemen intensifies. Egypt says it is ready to support Saudi Arabia’s defense, with President Sisi seeking parliamentary authorization. Oil has climbed above $110 a barrel amid fears of further supply disruption. Türkiye’s Gas Push: Türkiye is preparing to double Black Sea gas production with its new Osman Gazi floating platform, targeting higher flows by 2027.

Hormuz Shipping: Ship attacks reached a monthly record, UKMTO said, reporting at least 12 confirmed incidents in the week to October 16. A tanker was also hit by an RPG off Saudi Arabia, while Iran’s Guards claimed a supertanker struck a mine in Hormuz. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel amid supply fears. Saudi Security: The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted four drones and two ballistic missiles as Houthi attacks continued. Egypt’s President Sisi asked parliament to authorize defensive support for the kingdom if requested. Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign minister backed an inclusive political process to resolve the Saudi-Houthi conflict and renewed Tehran’s offer to mediate. Turkish Gas: Türkiye launched its first floating Black Sea gas platform, with output expected to double by 2027.